Real Clear

120. Preview. Harris's DNC Speech & RFK Jr.'s Trump Endorsement

Lucas A. Klein, Ph.D. Episode 120

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Is Kamala Harris's DNC speech a game-changer or a desperate attempt to reconnect with voters?  Discover how the DNC's approach may be a signal of their concerns about losing the black vote, and whether Harris's reintroduction to the American public can distance her from past unpopularity.

Could RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump be the wildcard in the 2024 presidential race? Explore our examination of the potential 4% boost this could give Trump, as we scrutinize Nate Silver and 538 models indicating a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris. Learn about the "Trump effect," where he historically outperforms polls by 2-3%, and how this could offset Harris's slight leads in some states. The crucial question remains: will RFK Jr.'s support sway swing states to ultimately decide the election? For even more insights, don't miss our recommendations to check out the new RealClear website.

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Speaker 1:

And hello everybody. This is a weekend update. I wanted to bring you some thoughts on the Harris speech, the DNC convention and the state of the 2024 race in general, as well as a few other things. As many of you now know, kamala Harris accepted her nomination formally for the DNC on Thursday evening. Here are my thoughts on the speech in terms of political analysis, presentation and then, of course, to some extent, substance.

Speaker 1:

In terms of the presentation you're just thinking to yourself now production value and appeal. Visually, it was a much better production value than the RNC was able to provide for Trump. There were multiple angles. It came across like a rock concert introduction and then exodus. It was very well done from a production value. This obviously is important for appeal to younger generations. It's also very important from a political campaign standpoint for people who are more swayed by presentation and emotional vibration than by substance. The DNC did a very good job, likely assisted by the various news companies, in making a high production value presentation for Kamala. I happen to think that they need to do that, so they're particularly focused on production value at a time where they have a candidate who, up until just yesterday, so to speak, was extremely unpopular and has tended to lack substance on anything real unpopular, and has tended to lack substance on anything real. So what also came across in terms of the tact and production was that I think the DNC is quite worried about losing the black vote.

Speaker 1:

The reason that I'm saying this is that they tended to amplify Harris's black heritage well over her Indian heritage. So there's a reason for that. They also tended to adorn her, almost contextualize her, with elements of black culture that, from what I can tell, she has never authentically possessed. For instance, in her speech she had mentioned that her mother always had Aretha Coltrane and Miles playing in the house. Maybe it's possible, but it's also highly dubious to assume that a woman from Gujarat, as her mother was I'm not sure it's Gujarat, but directly from India really had a deep preference for any type of American music. She may have, but it just seems odd. Someone also instructed her sister, who provided an introduction, to speak with an urban twang. Now, there's nothing wrong with that, again, if it's authentically possessed, but I don't think that two relatively upper-crust, high-achieving women from San Francisco, raised by a bioscience mother and a Stanford professor father, would really speak that way. And she also really doesn't If you listen to how she speaks in general, that was simply contrived. The question from a political analysis standpoint is why then, is it contrived? Is it coming from her own inner world? Does she somehow feel a need to do that? Probably not.

Speaker 1:

In addition to all of the other contextual factors present in their presentation of Kamala, I think it's pretty clear that they are very worried about losing the black vote. And if you look at what's happening with Trump's popularity in the minority cultures, he is gaining ground, at least as opposed to other Republican candidates of the past. Now you can also rejoinder that by saying he's not doing so well amongst other groups like independents, and those are bigger groups who have a much greater effect on the election. We'll talk more about that in a minute towards the end, where we're going to address the RFK Jr endorsement of Donald Trump and holy smokes, what a moment that was.

Speaker 1:

But moving on with a DNC speech for Kamala Harris, her overall stance was let's introduce myself anew. Her speech was basically I'm Kamala, this is what you need to know about me, as if people haven't known her for the last three and a half four years, and from here you can listen to the full episode if you go to realclearpodcastcom or click the link in the show notes below. It's only $4.99 a month. You'll get access to everything that I'm doing all episodes, uninterrupted essays and Sunday news releases. It's well worth it, and turn other people on to realclearpodcastcom with Lucas Klein.